10-Point Strategic Plan:
Stephen Haines, CEO and Founder
Haines Centre for Strategic Management
Email Stephen
Phone: 619-275-6528
US and NATO on Afghanistan (AFPAK)
Stephen HainesInsanity has been described as doing the same thing over and over and expecting difference results. It’s clear that doing the same thing in Afghanistan won’t work. It’s time for a holistic solution that integrates: economic, security, political, ethnic, cultural issues and social rights. The US and NATO need a strategic plan that focuses on these different issues—and not just on the war alone. Addressing each of these areas in an integrated way can create a new, sustainable Afghan nation and state for the first real time ever—that is our goal as it seems to be.
Point #1 – Cut a Deal with the War Lords
Cut a deal with the War Lords to run their own territories and ethnic groups, but with a government like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and promote a decent value system—including social rights and women’s rights. The former Director of National Intelligence, Admiral Dennis Blair, USN Ret (Former class president and graduate of the US Naval Academy with the Legendary Leadership Class of 1968) has all the granular intelligence and information on the ground to do this.
In terms of corruption, since it is ingrained in the Afghan culture at all levels, decide if you want to attack this culture change directly or through the warlords. Be careful here.
This has worked before in Franklin Roosevelt’s (FDR’s) 4-Point Marshall Plan which helped rebuild European countries following World War II. In his address also known as The Four Freedoms Speech, FDR proposed four points as fundamental freedoms humans “everywhere in the world” ought to enjoy.
- Freedom of speech and expression
- Freedom of religion
- Freedom from want
- Freedom from fear
Those same themes should resonate for the Afghans.
One Big Problem: Who are the war lord leaders who are left that have not been killed, or are too corrupt to change their culture and ethnic ways? Will they change? Can they change? How do you get them to focus on a positive future for their constituents rather than looting and building their own treasury? Will they trust the US and Kabul as the Northern Alliance of warlords helped defeat the Taliban in 2001, but were undercut afterwards.
Point #2 – Purchase the Poppy Seeds and Change the Economy
Buy up the poppy seeds, a $4 billion industry which provides the economic base of the rural farmers. This is cheap. Once owned they can then be destroyed and gradually replaced with a new economic base. Creates loyalty too—just be sure the money does not get back to the Taliban.
One Big Problem: There must be a successor agricultural economy that can be easily and more profitably be cultivated by farmers who do not read or write throughout the entire country—and in Pakistan as well, at least in the mountainous regions.
Point #3 – Wire and Connect the Country
Set up a massive infrastructure program to connect the country. Ask the Norwegians and Chinese how to do it successfully as they have done. Rebuild the critical infrastructure such as roads, schools, medical facilities, tunnels, bridges, trains, and industrial facilities. Employ Afghans to do most of the work, such as has been done with by Aramco in Saudi Arabia This is what we helped Germany and Japan do after World War II; have become global powerhouses and allies. Don’t have the contractors from around the world be more than General Contractors—“a person with a job is not a terrorist.” Be sure they are taught marketable skills as a part of this (see Point #4).
One Big Problem: The amount of money this would take usually requires the amount of oil profits that Norway has. Where does this come from?
Point #4 – Declare Amnesty and Rebuild Relationships
Declare amnesty for Taliban and terrorists. They will come in as long as they have a way to make a living and not be persecuted.
One Big Problem: Do the Taliban want amnesty or do they want to take over the country as a Muslim Fundamentalist nation. Sorting through who really wants amnesty and who will use it as cover for insurgency is key.
Point #5 – Teach them Skills for a Sustainable Future
Teach them practical job skills so they can build the infrastructure with jobs that are needed; not bring in outside workers; just the general contractors to lead, design the infrastructure and train them to do the work.
Another Big Problem: Oh, by the way, how do you teach skills to folks who are illiterate as 72% of Afghanistan adults are, according to reliable reports. What language are we even talking about here—local dialects, Afghanistan language or English? We only have depth in teaching English.
Point #6 – Leverage Women Power
Make special use of the women. Give opportunity to women who are being held back. Set up a Women’s Movement to help them with education, jobs, families, and taking their rightful role.
One Big Problem: This is a counter-cultural issue of huge importance to the male dominated Muslim world. It is a power issue that is deeply cultural and must be overcome in each war lord area or province.
Point #7 – Share the Power
Let Kabul be the titular capital, but acknowledge the war lords are the real power. Just like Abu Dhabi does for the UAE, Kabul would handle the few national government tasks it minimally needs to do. There would be a limited officially centralized leadership to link it with NATO and the world community, UN, etc. They would, however, control the War Lords, keeping them in line, through rewards and punishment levers.
One Big Problem: The Constitution that was developed in 2001 calls for a centralized Federal Government that appoints all 40 Provincial Heads. It must be changed to re-balance the power in the Provinces. However, the provinces must agree to a value system mentioned earlier.
Point #8 – Align Our Resources
Get joint funding and leadership from NATO on all this (including support from Russia and China)to help establish a Joint Leadership Team of the countries to form a miniature United Nations that works. Then, place Warrior-Statesman Colin Powell, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State in charge, who can make the pieces come together. The #2 choice is four star General Zinni, USMC Retired, former CentCom.
One Big Problem: Can we really get NATO, Russia and China to work with us? Will we appoint a Czar and will we form a true International Joint Leadership Team for this? It is unprecedented.
Point #9 – Fight the War Unconstrained and Bring home the Troops
Finally, what all the military wants, give them the resources to fight, win and hold the territories gained. Stop the rules of war that prevent success—and yes, build friends and credibility and keep civilian loss to an absolute minimum. But make it clear—join us or be killed. Then let the killing of the radicals get serious. This includes the use of drones, one of the most effective ways to do it. Remember the USMC motto—no greater friend and no worse enemy!
And yes, get the troops in the field as soon as possible and then start bringing the troops home as soon as possible. The date to start the process is important. What is more important is the process and the speed and the situation on the ground as to how fast a full withdrawal is made. This is a more thoughtful process than many have views on now.
One Big Problem: The most effective war weapon we now have is the drone. However, it has become a political football about civilian casualties precisely because of it massive success. We need to turn this view around very soon if we are to fight with our major new weapon.
Point #10 – Train an Afghanistan Military
We clearly need to identify, select, train and provide the tools for an Afghanistan Military Force to stand up and be counted upon to defend their country and preserve the peace. This is a task of mighty proportions at one level since it does not exist. Provincial forces may make the most concern as it localizes the effort and gives the forces the most reason to be an effective force—protecting their home area. Let’s teach them skills for peace and prosperity, not just war.
One Big Problem: We don’t need to teach their army how to fight. They have been doing that for 30 years since Charlie Wilson’s War (and even before this for 100 years). Do we think we can form them into a US type fighting force or one trained for their own country and insurgency? How do we train them without any reading or writing skills?
Bonus Point #11 – Pakistan
A true solution must recognize the larger system context, including Pakistan (and India). For Pakistan, support the plans of Admiral Michael Mullen, Admiral, USN—Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (from my Legendary Leadership Class of 1968, US Naval Academy) who has been working on this issue for the past few years with the Pakistani Generals and government quite successfully. We have given them boat loads of money and military assistance and we must continue do this in ways that help improve our perceptions with the Pakistani people. We need to give them drones of their own to defeat the terrorists in the mountainous autonomous regions.
One Big Problem: The Pakistani government and military has had a pact with the devil in terms of the Muslim Fundamentalists for a long time, but now must fight and defeat them. Is the resolve in Pakistan there to do this by the military who harbor or tolerate many of these same militants? Is this resolve there by the government and the populace who seems to somehow hate the US more than the militants? Is this issue larger than Pakistan and part of the US-India relationship since the Pakistanis dislike India and have been at war with them for decades? Cricket Diplomacy anyone?
In Summary
If we have learned one thing over the years, piecemeal solutions never work, whether in organizations or societies. Developing a sustainable solution requires taking a Systems Thinking Approach® and executing a set of strategies to build a foundation for success in this difficult situation. We believe this is the best of the worst solutions for AFPAK.Stephen Haines is a globally recognized systems thinker and founder of Haines Centre for Strategic Management®, the world leaders in strategic management. He is the Western VP as a US Naval Academy Graduate with the Legendary Leadership Class of 1968.
